Legacy research firm, Legacy Foresight, has issued revised forecasts that predict legacy income will rise by 3.6 per cent annually between now and 2024, representing a rise from £3.2 billion to £3.9 billion in 2024.
The revised forecast was issued after the Office for National Statistics (ONS) published official data predicting the number of deaths in the UK will rise from the current level of 600,000 a year to 645,000 a year in 2024.
Legacy Foresight expects that this will mean an increase in the number of legacy gifts of 10,000 from 120,000 to 130,000 between now and 2024.
The forecasts also factor in predicted rises in UK GDP and house prices over the coming years.
Jon Franklin, Economist at Legacy Forecast said: “For now, legacy market growth will not return to the levels seen in the run-up to Brexit when incomes were growing at 4.1 per cent per year.
“However, at a time when many charities are reporting flat or falling donations, these forecasts are welcome news for fundraising teams across the UK.”
Richard Hill, Programme Manager at Legacy Foresight, added: “We believe that come unusually large bequests bolstered income growth in early 2019.
“We saw total bequest numbers down nine per cent or 2018 figures. We estimate that three per cent of this fall was due to a short-term reduction in deaths after the unusually severe winter of 2018/19. The remaining six per cent drop was caused by the widely reported delays at probate courts.
“These delays now appear to be lessening, with a backlog of around 3,200 bequests to be processed over the coming months. Legacy notifications should return to ‘normal’ levels during 2020.”
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